588
AXPZ20 KNHC 142113
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 132.1W AT
14/2100 UTC, STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 11 FT OR 3.5 M. HERNAN HAS SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE
SEMICIRCLE. HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND AND
MOVE AT A FASTER FORWARD MOTION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HERNAN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY EARLY SATURDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HERNAN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 99W NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL PANAMA AT 08N78W TO
10N93W TO 07N103W. THE ITCZ BEGINS THERE AND EXTENDS TO 16N122W.
COSTA RICA AT 09N83W TO 08N104W. THE ITCZ BEGINS THERE AND
EXTENDS TO 12N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 04N EAST OF 90W, FROM 03N-11N
BETWEEN 94W-104W, FROM 04N-16N BETWEEN 110W-132W, AND FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 121W-130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER. SEA ARE 5-7 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, 4-6 FT OVER
THE REMAINING PACIFIC WATERS, AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY NEAR-
GALE N WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN QUIESCENT UNTIL AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS ARE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN SW
SWELL OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 04N EAST OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, LARGE S SWELL SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS ON MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HERNAN.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 30N123W TO 20N112W TO 17N105W.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HERNAN, THE TRADES NORTH OF
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND S TO SW WINDS
ARE ALSO GENTLE TO FRESH. LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 7-8
FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 03N WEST OF 95W. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 5-7
FT IN MIXED SW AND NE SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 121W-130W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HERNAN WILL MOVE TO 15.5N 133.2W SAT MORNING,
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 15.4N 135.1W SAT AFTERNOON,
15.4N 137.2W SUN MORNING, 15.4N 139.5W SUN AFTERNOON, 15.5N
141.7W MON MORNING, AND DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GRADUAL ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD.
LANDSEA
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