379
WTPZ43 KNHC 150235
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
500 PM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN HAS REFORMED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE SYSTEM NOW INITIALIZED ABOUT 30 MI
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE CENTER REFORMATION IS EVIDENT ON
GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
OCEANSAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS ALSO POSITIONS HERNAN CLOSER
TO ITS ACTIVE CONVECTION, WHICH IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH
SAMPLED THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/12 KT, AND BASED PRIMARILY
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 4 TO 6 H. THIS GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. DUE TO
THE CENTER REFORMATION, THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES ABOUT 30 MI
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND
TVCN CONSENSUS AIDS. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT HERNAN AND LEAD TO THE SYSTEM
DEGENERATING INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 24 H. THE REMNANT LOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR A FEW MORE DAYS THEREAFTER,
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 72 H. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 16.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 16.4N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 16.5N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 16.6N 140.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 16.7N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER MAHONEY/PASCH
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