475
WTPZ43 KNHC 150837
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 14 2026
HERNAN IS CURRENTLY A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO
ACTIVE CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED WINDS OF 25-27 KT
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF UNDERSAMPLING THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 30 KT. UNLESS CONVECTION MAKES A SIGNIFICANT RE-APPEARANCE,
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 H. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANT LOW TO DECAY TO A
TROUGH BY 72 H IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD STEER HERNAN AND ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO, BUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN, THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 16.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z 16.6N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z 16.7N 139.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 16.8N 141.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z 16.8N 143.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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