685
WTPZ43 KNHC 151432
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
500 AM HST SAT AUG 15 2026
HERNAN CONTINUES TO REMAIN A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
NO ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT OSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE
WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KTS AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CYCLONE. CONSIDERING A POSSIBILITY OF UNDERSAMPLING AND THAT THE
MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK FIX HAD A WIND ESTIMATE OF 30 KT, THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR, HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW DECAY
OF HERNAN TO A TROUGH IN 60 TO 72 H IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/12 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD STEER HERNAN AND ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO, BUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN, THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 16.2N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 16.4N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 16.7N 142.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z 16.9N 144.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG
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