309
AXPZ20 KNHC 151605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 1 6.1N 134.9W, OR
ABOUT 1470 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT 15/1500 UTC MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 10 FT OR 3 M.
SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON HERNAN AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE SYSTEM AS A SWIRL OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HERNAN IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HERNAN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W NORTH OF 03N TO INLAND
CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS, IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 17N. IT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 110W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT 10N75W WESTWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN PANAMA AND THROUGH CENTRAL COSTA RICA, AND CONTINUES
TO 10N84W TO 10N99W AND TO 08N105W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ TO 05N115W TO 08N123W AND TO 13N130W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
78W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS WAS DETECTED BY OVERNIGHT SATELLITE ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 5 TO FT OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE REMAINING PACIFIC WATERS, AND 1
TO 3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS, WITH SPEEDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TUE, WITH WINDS REACHING STRONG SPEEDS NEAR AND NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA EAST OF 117W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER CALM UNTIL AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS FORECAST WATERS, EXCEPT
LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF GUAYAQUIL. SEAS
ARE 5 TO FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST WATERS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WATERS OFF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH THERE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PULSE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH MON. LARGE SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS MAINLY FROM ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LARGEST BY MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HERNAN.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO NEAR 18N113W. ASIDE FROM
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HERNAN, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF
124W. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT ACROSS THOSE WATERS. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF
THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT TO 8 FT NEAR THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 116W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. ANY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR 16.2N 136.6W BY THIS EVENING, MOVE TO
NEAR 16.4N 138.9W SUN MORNING AND MOVE WEST OF THE AREA TO NEAR
16.5N 140.9W BY SUN EVENING AND DISSIPATE WELL WEST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ON EITHER SIDE NEAR
THE EQUATOR TO THE EAST OF 130W THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN
PERSISTENT AND REINFORCED SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST
PACIFIC. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL
HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO.
AGUIRRE
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