406
WTPZ43 KNHC 152042
TCDEP3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 15 2026
HERNAN CONTINUES TO REMAIN A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
NO ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE WINDS
ARE AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE. AS A RESULT OF THAT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 25 KT.
GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HERNAN TO BECOME A TROUGH IN
ABOUT 60 H IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/10 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD STEER HERNAN AND ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO, BUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN, THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 15.8N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 16/0600Z 15.9N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1800Z 16.1N 139.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z 16.4N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 16.5N 143.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG
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