111
AXPZ20 KNHC 160319
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W NORTH OF 04N TO INLAND
WESTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND CONTINUING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 106W SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 10N84W TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N108W TO 04N119W TO 08N128W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO
10.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 128W, AND FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 128W AND
135W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO NEAR GALE NORTH GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, LOCALLY STRONG NEAR PUNTA
EUGENIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 6 TO
9 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE REMAINING
OPEN PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS, AND 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH WED, THEN MODERATE TO
FRESH THEREAFTER. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES
THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUE, WITH WINDS REACHING
STRONG SPEEDS NEAR AND NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA EAST OF 117W.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER CALM UNTIL AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, LOCALLY STRONG
NEAR THE GULF OF GUAYAQUIL. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS, EXCEPT TO
8 FT NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH THERE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PULSE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH MON. LARGE SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS MAINLY FROM ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LARGEST EXPECTED BY
AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN, LOW PRESSURE OF 1007 MB, ARE LOCATED NEAR
16N136W. NEARBY WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
HAS FLARED UP WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN
135W AND 140W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH
OF THE EQUATOR. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT SOUTH OF ABOUT 02N BETWEEN 89W
AND 120W, AMD 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ON EITHER SIDE NEAR
THE EQUATOR TO THE EAST OF ABOUT 130W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN PERSISTENT AND REINFORCED SOUTHERLY SWELLS. THE REMNANTS OF
HERNAN AND ASSOCIATED RESIDUAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHIFT OF 140W
BY TOMORROW EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FORM WELL TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
LEWITSKY
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