837
AXPZ20 KNHC 160729
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0720 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88.5W NORTH OF 02N NEAR THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO INLAND EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN
HONDURAS AND CONTINUING INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 107.5W SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 08.5N100W TO 07N117W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N117W TO 08N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 13N
BETWEEN 77W AND 94W, AND FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 104W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 01N TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 135W, AND FROM 00N TO 08N
BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO NEAR GALE NORTH GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10
FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE REMAINING
OPEN PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS, AND 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES, EXCEPT SOME CLUSTERS INLAND TO NEAR THE
COASTS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH WED NIGHT, THEN
MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AT
TIMES THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WHILE ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WITH WINDS REACHING
STRONG SPEEDS NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST. LOOKING AHEAD, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE NEXT WEEK
OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
SEAS THERE ARE 7 TO 10 FT DOWNWIND TO NEAR 10N90W. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, LOCALLY STRONG
NEAR THE GULF OF GUAYAQUIL. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS, EXCEPT TO
8 FT NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH
TUE, THEN BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG THEREAFTER. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH
MON. LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS MAINLY FROM
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
LARGEST EXPECTED BY AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN, LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB, ARE LOCATED
NEAR 16N137.5W. NEARBY WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE PER VERY RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FLARE WHERE REMOVED FROM THE CENTER BETWEEN 90 NM
AND 180 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W, AND
FROM 08N TO 21N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO
10 FT SOUTH OF ABOUT 02N BETWEEN 90W AND 121W, AMD 5 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ON EITHER SIDE NEAR
THE EQUATOR TO THE EAST OF ABOUT 130W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN PERSISTENT AND REINFORCED SOUTHERLY SWELLS. THE REMNANTS OF
HERNAN AND ASSOCIATED RESIDUAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHIFT OF 140W
BY THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE NEXT WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT
SOME INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WITH THIS AREA.
LEWITSKY
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