220
AXPZ20 KNHC 190227
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0150 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W FROM 02N NORTHWARD TO
ACROSS EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS AND INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05.5N
TO 11.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
O FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 106W SOUTH OF 17N OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT AROUND
25 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 134W, FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE EAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT 09N75W TO 08N104W TO 05N119W TO 09N140W.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THREE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 91W AND 103W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO JUST WEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
YIELDING MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AREA YIELDS STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
VERY CLOSE TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE TONIGHT SO OCCASIONAL GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RESULTANT ROUGH SEAS ARE THERE. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE
4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, AND 1 TO
3 FT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EACH EVENING AND
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, NEAR GALE-FORCE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD
TO ROUGH DURING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL SUSTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WATERS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS THERE THROUGH WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
MODESTLY ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON ANY
CONVECTION.
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THIS EVENING AND EXTEND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W. SEAS THERE
ARE 5 TO 8 FT. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
NORTH OF THE EQUATOR ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW
SWELL, AND 7 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR,
HIGHEST SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LEAD TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING WELL DOWNWIND OF
PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ACROSS THE GALAPAGOS WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THU. MODERATE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL MOVING
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH LARGER SE
SWELL DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC WATERS WELL SOUTH OF THE
GALAPAGOS TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER S OF 01N, AND
MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU BEFORE SUBSIDING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TWO TROPICAL
WAVES THAT HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO JUST WEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS
ARE NOTED FROM NEAR 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. SEAS ARE 6
TO 9 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HELPING TO
ENHANCE CONDITIONS THERE. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 05N, WITH WINDS MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT SOUTH OF 05N IN
MIXED LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL, AND MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL WATERS RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGING.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE
TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BRING SOME INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS TO AREA WATERS, AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT RIDGE
IN PLACE. AWAY FROM THESE WAVES, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
MARINE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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