484
AXPZ20 KNHC 190712
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0640 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 89W FROM 03N NORTHWARD TO
ACROSS EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS AND BELIZE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 89W AND 93W, AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM
THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 107W SOUTH OF 17N AND WELL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 110W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 136W, FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE MAY BE
EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE AT 09N136W, NEW INVEST EP90. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 11N
BETWEEN 131W AND 140W. THIS AREA OF INTEREST IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST AT 11N74W TO 08N93W TO 09N116W TO
06N118W TO LOW PRESSURE, NEW INVEST EP90, NEAR 09N136W TO
07N140W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THREE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 119W AND 129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO JUST WEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
YIELDING MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WITH THESE WINDS OVER THE AREA SEEN BY RECENT METOP-C ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA YIELDS STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS SEEN BY THE
SAME SCATTEROMETER. RESULTANT ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE
PRESENT THERE. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, AND 1 TO 3 FT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
EXCEPT TO 5 FT IN GULF NORTH OF 30N WHERE THE FRESH WINDS ARE.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EACH EVENING AND
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD
TO ROUGH DURING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL SUSTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WATERS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON ANY
CONVECTION.
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION PER RECENT METOP-A ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, LIKELY
EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 11N92W. SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITH
THESE WINDS. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, AND MODERATE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT
FRESH SOUTH OF 02S, HIGHEST NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF
GUAYAQUIL. SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH
OF THE EQUATOR ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL,
AND 7 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR, HIGHEST
SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LEAD TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING WELL
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE GALAPAGOS WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU.
CROSS-QUATORIAL SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH LARGER SE SWELL DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN
PACIFIC WATERS WELL SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS
8 FT AND GREATER SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR, AND MODERATE SEAS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU BEFORE THE ROUGH SEAS AREA SUBSIDES.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TWO TROPICAL
WAVES THAT HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO JUST WEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS
ARE NOTED FROM NEAR 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. SEAS ARE 6
TO LOCALLY 8 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HELPING
TO ENHANCE CONDITIONS THERE. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 05N, WITH WINDS MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT SOUTH OF 04N IN
MIXED LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL, AND MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL WATERS RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGING.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE
TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BRING SOME INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS TO AREA WATERS, AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT RIDGE
IN PLACE. AWAY FROM THESE WAVES, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
MARINE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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