831
AXPZ20 KNHC 192050
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 138W-139W, FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
IS ANALYZED NEAR THE WAVE AT 10N139W, AND HAS BEEN DESIGNATED
INVEST EP90. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 08N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 132W AND 143W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM 00N TO 05.5N
BETWEEN 137W AND 148W. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS
N TO NE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING IN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 93W-94W FROM 03N NORTHWARD
TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE MEXICO, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15
KT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 89W AND 100W. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AROUND THE
END OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 109W SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 113W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 138W-139W, AND IS DESCRIBED
ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 08N91W TO 09.5N108W TO
07N128W TO LOW PRESSURE 1007 MB, INVEST EP90, NEAR 10N138W TO
BEYOND 09.5N140W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH
THREE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 03N TO 08.5N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 113W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS RELAXED
TODAY, AND IS YIELDING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA,
WITH FRESH S TO SE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE, AND IS
PRODUCING STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF AND EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13.5N.596W. RESULTANT SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE
PRESENT THERE. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS BETWEEN TEHUANTEPEC AND BAJA SUR. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6
FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THESE OFFSHORE WATERS, 1 TO 3 FT
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT IN NORTHERN GULF
WHERE THE FRESH WINDS ARE OCCURRING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALOFT ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
SUR, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
OAXACA, AS THIS CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THAT AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EACH EVENING AND
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT LIKELY ONLY REACHING FRESH
SPEEDS THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO ROUGH DURING
PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
SUSTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WATERS, WITH FRESH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS THERE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON ANY
CONVECTION.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AS SHOWN BY RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA,
AND EXTEND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 95W. SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITH
THESE WINDS. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, AND MODERATE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH OF 05N, HIGHEST NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF THE
GULF OF GUAYAQUIL. SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED CROSS
EQUATORIAL S AND SW SWELL, AND 7 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL SOUTH
OF 03.5N, HIGHEST SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LEAD TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING WELL
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE GALAPAGOS WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
THROUGH THU THAN REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH LARGER S TO SE SWELL DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN PACIFIC WATERS WELL SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS TO PRODUCE
ROUGH SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER SOUTH OF 02N, AND MODERATE SEAS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU BEFORE THE ROUGH SEAS AREA SUBSIDES.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TWO TROPICAL
WAVES THAT HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS
ARE NOTED FROM AROUND 09N TO 21N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. SEAS ARE
5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HELPING TO
ENHANCE CONDITIONS THERE. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 05N, WITH WINDS MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT SOUTH OF 04N IN
MIXED CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL, AND MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL
WATERS RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGING. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 132W AND 143W ACCOMPANIES
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W-139W.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE
TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BRING SOME INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS TO AREA WATERS S OF 20N, AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT RIDGE IN PLACE. EXPECT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
FOR WINDS TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT NEAR THE
TROPICALWAVE ALONG 138W-139W THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AWAY
FROM THESE TROPICAL WAVES, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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