607
AXPZ20 KNHC 200256
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL PACIFIC (EP90): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST,
EP90, IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS NEAR 10.5N140W. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 30
KT AND SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THIS LOW IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AT
140W. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 16N BETWEEN
131W AND 140W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND CROSSES
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 95.5W FROM 02N TO 16N NEAR
THE WESTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 109W SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 113W. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AROUND THE END
OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM THIS
WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TO IMPACT THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 140W, AND IS DESCRIBED ABOVE
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT 10N74W TO 08N91W TO 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 09N110W TO 06N122W TO LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP90, NEAR
10.5N140W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THREE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 77W AND 94W, FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 99W AND 107W, FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 113W AND 132W, AND
FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND FOR RELATED
CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TO BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THOSE WATERS,
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT LINGERING FRESH WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING BY, AND IS PRODUCING STRONG N TO NE
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF. RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE PRESENT
THERE. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THESE OFFSHORE
WATERS, AND 1 TO 3 FT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EACH EVENING AND
NIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY
BUILDING TO ROUGH. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
SUSTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WATERS, WITH FRESH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS THERE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT. WINDS MAY FRESHEN ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON ANY
CONVECTION.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS THERE ARE 5 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS, WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS EXTENDING WELL DOWNWIND TO NEAR 11N92W WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ALSO EXTEND TO. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND MODERATE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR, HIGHEST NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF GUAYAQUIL WHERE
THEY ARE LOCALLY STRONG2. SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED CROSS
EQUATORIAL S AND SW SWELL, AND 7 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL SOUTH
OF 02N, HIGHEST SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LEAD TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL
IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
GALAPAGOS WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH THU,
THEN REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MERGE WITH LARGER S TO SE SWELL DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN
PACIFIC WATERS WELL SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS
8 FT AND GREATER SOUTH OF 02N, AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THU BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TWO SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, AND ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY PRESENT LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, HOWEVER IT IS NOW DISRUPTED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N135W TO 23N140W. AWAY FROM INVEST EP90
ALONG 140W AND EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN, MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ARE NEAR A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 09N110W ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE AT 110W, FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W
WHERE SEAS ARE LOCALLY ROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
EXTEND WELL DOWNWIND FROM A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT TO
NEAR 10N100W. SEAS ARE LOCALLY ROUGH THERE AS WELL. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH OF 06N. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT NEAR INVEST
EP90, AND 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N, 6 TO 8 FT FROM 07N TO
12N, AND 7 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL SOUTH OF 07N.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE
FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BRING SOME INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS TO AREA WATERS SOUTH OF 20N, AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT RIDGE IN PLACE. INVEST EP90 NEAR 140W WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE WATERS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN THROUGH THU. AWAY FROM
THESE FEATURES, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT FOR THE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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