538
AXPZ20 KNHC 210249
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
ENVIRONMENT, ANALYZED ALONG 114W. THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
07.5N114W, WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS FROM 02N TO 16N
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN 48 HRS AND 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BASIN ALONG 85W, N OF 03N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
S OF 09N AND E OF 89W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 100W, N OF 05N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
STRETCHES FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 110W, AS THE WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE SW COAST
OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTHWESTWARD, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N137W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND FOR RELATED
CONVECTION.
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WHERE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
HAS MOVED W OF THE GULF, AND IS PRODUCING STRONG N TO NE GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13N98W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7
FT ACROSS THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF MEXICO, TYPICAL RIDGING HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OFFSHORE OF PUNTA EUGENIA, ALONG ABOUT 118W, RESULTING IN
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWED THAT THIS CURRENT PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO
GENTLE NW TO N WINDS, EXCEPT MODERATE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND BECOME GENTLE NW TO N ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS THERE ARE 1 TO 3 FT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN, AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO ROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK MODESTLY ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT TO PRODUCE A MORE TYPICAL
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WIND FLOW THERE. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND BECOME FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SUN. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON ANY
CONVECTION.
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
GAP EXTENDING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO NEAR 90W, WHERE SEAS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD AND
DOWNSTREAM, AND S OF 12.5N, ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT. MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH FRESH WINDS NEAR
THE BORDER OF PERU AND ECUADOR CLOSE TO THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF
OF GUAYAQUIL. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS NORTH OF 04N, AND 6 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 04N. CLUSTERS OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA, DUE TO THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE THERE, DESCRIBED
ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG WINDS OVER
THE PAPAGAYO REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS EXTENDING WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER
WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
CURRENTLY PRESENT LEADING TO HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA SURF.
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE NOTED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ARE
IMPACTING THE WATERS BETWEEN 10N TO 20N AND W OF 135W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 124W
AND 140W , WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 06N TO THE EAST OF 118W AND SOUTH OF 04N TO THE
WEST OF 120W. ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS ARE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING, AND NOW COVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 02.5N E OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE
FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TO
AREA WATERS SOUTH OF 25N, AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
RIDGE IN PLACE. AWAY FROM THESE FEATURES, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN MARINE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT
FOR THE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHICH ARE FORECAST
TO FULLY SUBSIDE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
ERA
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