403
AXPZ20 KNHC 210848
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
ENVIRONMENT, ANALYZED ALONG 115W. THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
08.5N115W, WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS FROM 02N TO 16N
BETWEEN 110W AND 119W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN 48 HRS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE IN 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BASIN ALONG 87W, N OF 03N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 102W, N OF 05N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
STRETCHES FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 107W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD, REMAINING WELL
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N136W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND FOR RELATED
CONVECTION.
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AREA, IS PRODUCING STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13N98W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS
THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO,
TYPICAL RIDGING HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE OF PUNTA EUGENIA, ALONG ABOUT 118W, RESULTING IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWED THAT THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO N
WINDS, EXCEPT MODERATE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND BECOME GENTLE NW TO N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. SEAS THERE ARE 1 TO 3 FT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTS AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF GUERRERO
AND MICHOACAN, AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD, IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO ROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK MODESTLY ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT TO PRODUCE A MORE TYPICAL
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WIND FLOW THERE. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND BECOME FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SUN. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING WESTWARD AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON ANY
CONVECTION.
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
GAP EXTENDING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO NEAR 90W, WHERE SEAS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD AND
DOWNSTREAM, AND S OF 12.5N, ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH FRESH WINDS NEAR THE
BORDER OF PERU AND ECUADOR CLOSE TO THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF
GUAYAQUIL. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
NORTH OF 04N, AND 6 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 04N. CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, DUE
TO THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG WINDS OVER
THE PAPAGAYO REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS EXTENDING WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER
WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SUBSIDE
TODAY.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
CURRENTLY PRESENT LEADING TO HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA SURF.
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE NOTED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ARE
IMPACTING THE WATERS BETWEEN 15N TO 20N AND W OF 135W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 125W AND 140W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 06N TO THE EAST OF 118W AND SOUTH
OF 04N TO THE WEST OF 120W. ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING, AND NOW COVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 02.5N
E OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE
FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TO
AREA WATERS SOUTH OF 25N, AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
RIDGE IN PLACE. AWAY FROM THESE FEATURES, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN MARINE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT
FOR THE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHICH ARE FORECAST
TO FULLY SUBSIDE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
ERA
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