975
AXPZ20 KNHC 211559
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91): AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND
A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 90W, N OF 03N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 110W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 104W, N OF 05N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 17N BETWEEN 96W AND 110W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT INTERACTS, OR POSSIBLY
MERGES WITH, A DISTURBANCE TO ITS WEST (EP91). THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N104W TO 06N125W TO
08N136W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W, AND FROM 04N TO
12N W OF 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT
14N. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE ARE JUST OFF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ALONG 104W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY
BUILDING TO ROUGH. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND SUPPORTING MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SUN. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTHWESTWARD AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W,
WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER
THE PAPAGAYO REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS EXTENDING WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER
WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
CURRENTLY PRESENT LEADING TO HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE NOTED IN THE PERIPHERY OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ARE
IMPACTING THE WATERS BETWEEN 15N TO 20N AND W OF 138W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND N OF 15N AND W OF
125W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT,
THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF 25N, AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
RIDGE IN PLACE. AWAY FROM THESE FEATURES, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
IN MARINE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT FOR THE
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO FULLY
SUBSIDE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
GR
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