906
AXPZ20 KNHC 220408
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT INTERACTS, OR POSSIBLY
MERGES WITH, THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND A
HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 92W, N OF 03N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN 86W AND 100W.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS
NEAR 107W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE IT INTERACTS, OR POSSIBLY MERGES WITH, THE DISTURBANCE TO
ITS WEST (INVEST EP91). SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 116W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48
HRS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 10N110W TO 07N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 113W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO, COMBINED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
FRESH E TO SE ARE NOTED IN THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 107W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY
BUILDING TO 8 FT. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND SUPPORTING MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT AND BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE GULF ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 89W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT IN THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL
STORM MOKE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ARE IMPACTING THE WATERS
BETWEEN 13N TO 25N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN 100W AND 110W, FROM THE OUTER
BORDER OF THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES TO THE MONSOON WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, THE
FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W
THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
RAMOS
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