412
ABPZ20 KNHC 220531
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
ACTIVE SYSTEMS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
LALA, LOCATED NORTH OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT, AND ON TROPICAL STORM MOKE, LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII.
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT INTERACTS, OR
POSSIBLY MERGES WITH, THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS WEST (EP91).
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND BEFORE IT INTERACTS, OR
POSSIBLY MERGES WITH, THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS EAST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.
WELL SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO:
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...30 PERCENT.
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS
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