244
AXPZ20 KNHC 221003
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0950 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO (EP92): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING WNW AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT INTERACTS, OR
POSSIBLY MERGES WITH, THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS WEST (EP91). THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH
48 HRS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND BEFORE IT INTERACTS, OR POSSIBLY MERGES
WITH, THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS EAST (EP92). THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND
A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 94W, N OF 03N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 17N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 19N WITH AXIS NEAR 108W,
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 114W. THIS
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP92 DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N100W TO 09N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED
ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 09N E OF 90W, AND FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN
113W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO, COMBINED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
FRESH E TO SE ARE NOTED IN THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP92.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT, WITH SEAS
OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND
SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND BECOME FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE GULF ON
SUN. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EP92,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WED NIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT IN THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL
STORM MOKE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ARE IMPACTING THE WATERS
BETWEEN 12N TO 25N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN 104W AND 112W, FROM THE OUTER
BORDER OF THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES TO THE MONSOON WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, THE
FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W
THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
RAMOS
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