090
AXPZ20 KNHC 221539
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO (EP92): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH, OR ABSORB, THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS
WEST (EP91) BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
THROUGH 7 DAYS.
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE
IT MERGES WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS EAST (EP92) BY LATE SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HRS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W, N OF 03N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 110W FROM 04N TO 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12.5N110W. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP92 DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N95W TO 12.5N110W TO
08N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
AND INVEST AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 90W, AND FROM 02N TO
10N W OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN
LAZARO AND PUNTA EUGENIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MEXICO, COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE, SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 13.5N. SEAS ARE UP TO 8
FT WITH THESE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE ARE NOTED IN THE
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP92.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT, WITH SEAS
OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND
SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND BECOME FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE GULF ON
SUN. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EP92,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WED NIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM 12N TO 25N W OF
130W. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 121W. THESE
WINDS ARE JUST S OF INVEST EP91. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, THE
FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W
AND 120W THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MARINE
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
GR
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