867
AXPZ20 KNHC 222110
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
AS IS NORMAL DURING EL NINO YEAR, THE EASTERN PACIFIC REMAINS
ACTIVE. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING TWO
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SYSTEMS ARE
INVEST AREAS EP91 AND EP92.
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO (EP92): SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, RECENT SATELLITE-
DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7
DAYS.
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91): DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PERSISTING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE IT
INTERACTS WITH, OR MERGES WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS EAST (EP92)
LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND ALSO
THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W, N OF 03N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
09N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N100W TO 13N111W TO
07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND INVEST AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 91W, AND FROM
01N TO 07N W OF 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO, COMBINED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N BASED ON A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. FRESH
TO STRONG E TO SE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVEST AREA EP92, ARE NOTED
IN THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW MEXICO, PARTICULARLY FROM 15N
TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SUN.
WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENTLY INVEST AREA EP92 ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS ON SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
AWAY FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N144W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E
WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. THESE WINDS ARE JUST S OF INVEST EP91.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 210
NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT OF INVEST EP92. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED NE
AND S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, THE
FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W
AND 120W THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
GR
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