650
AXPZ20 KNHC 230955
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0950 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO (EP92): SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE JALISCO OUTER OFFSHORES TODAY, AND
NEAR GALE-FORCE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH
48 HRS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7 DAYS.
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91): DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT INTERACTS OR MERGES WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS EAST (EP92). THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7
DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N TO 17N WITH AXIS NEAR 99W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N100W TO 13N111W TO
07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND INVEST AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 91W, AND FROM
01N TO 07N W OF 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO, COMBINED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N BASED ON A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. FRESH
TO STRONG E TO SE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVEST AREA EP92, ARE NOTED
IN THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW MEXICO, PARTICULARLY FROM 15N
TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT. A RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AREA EP92 ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
JALISCO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY AFFECTING THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS SUN EVENING INTO MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
AWAY FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N144W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E
WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. THESE WINDS ARE JUST S OF INVEST EP91.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 210
NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT OF INVEST EP92. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED NE
AND S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, THE
FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W
AND 120W THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
RAMOS
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