941
AXPZ20 KNHC 231010
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0940 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
AS IS NORMAL DURING EL NINO YEAR, THE EASTERN PACIFIC REMAINS
ACTIVE. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING TWO
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SYSTEMS ARE
INVEST AREAS EP91 AND EP92.
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO (EP92): SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE JALISCO OUTER OFFSHORES TODAY, AND
NEAR GALE-FORCE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH
48 HRS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7 DAYS.
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91): DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT INTERACTS OR MERGES WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS EAST (EP92). THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7
DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N TO 17N WITH AXIS NEAR 99W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N100W TO 14N115W TO
06N131W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N131W AND CONTINUES BEYOND
05N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND INVEST AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 00N TO 14N E OF 93W, AND FROM
00N TO 08N W OF 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHILE LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH INVEST EP92 DOMINATES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORES WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE OUTER JALISCO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ALONG THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE, FRESH
TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT. A RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TODAY, SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TODAY. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP92 WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE JALISCO
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY AFFECTING THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
AWAY FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
SYSTEMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB LOCATED NEAR 40N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
TO E WINDS FROM 10N TO 26N W OF 130W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT, EP92, DESCRIBED ABOVE, IS FORECAST TO BRING AT
LEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE IMMEDIATE WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND JALISCO OFFSHORES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
RAMOS
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