847
AXPZ20 KNHC 232150
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 115.1W AT 23/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 15 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO, AND ISELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISELLE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91): DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PERSISTING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY TROPICAL STORM ISELLE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH
48 HRS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W FROM 04N TO 20N MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. THE WAVE APPEARS TO ENHANCE
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA, HONDURAS AND
COSTA RICA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W N OF 04N INTO MEXICO, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 106W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W TO 11N110W THEN
CONTINUES SW OF ISELLE FROM 12N119W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES, INVEST
AREA EP91 AND T.S. ISELLE DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM FROM 03N TO 12N W
OF 126W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT T.S. ISELLE AND INVEST AREA EP91.
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF T.S. ISELLE ARE REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, PARTICULARLY CLARION ISLAND. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED WITH THESE
WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14.5N BASED ON RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WILL MOVE TO 18.2N 116.3W
MON MORNING, 19.6N 117.8W MON AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 20.8N 119.4W TUE MORNING, 21.4N 121.1W TUE AFTERNOON, WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.9N 122.8W WED MORNING, AND 22.4N
124.6W WED AFTERNOON. ISELLE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES TO NEAR 23.3N 128.4W THU AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ISELLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONE BETWEEN
CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF ISELLE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
STORM CONDITIONS IN THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TONIGHT, AND STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND THE
FORECAST ZONE BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS ON MON.
THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. FRESH
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC REGION MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS
OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LEADING TO FRESH NE TO E
GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION EACH
EVENING AND NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
EXTENDING WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS
OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
T.S. ISELLE AND INVEST AREA EP91.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB LOCATED NEAR 32N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND
OUTSIDE OF ISELLE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 15N AND W OF 120W.
FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE SEEN FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 125W. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
LATER THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM WELL OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
GR
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