350
AXPZ20 KNHC 240408
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 115.3W AT 24/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 17 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.
ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 KT AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND ISELLE COULD BECOME A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. SWELLS
GENERATED BY ISELLE WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISELLE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP91): DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY TROPICAL STORM
ISELLE.THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W FROM 02N TO 20N MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 03N TO 16N E OF 98W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W N OF 03N INTO MEXICO, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 12N110W THEN CONTINUES
SW OF ISELLE FROM 12N120W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES, INVEST AREA
EP91 AND T.S. ISELLE DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM FROM 01N TO 12N W
OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT T.S. ISELLE AND INVEST AREA EP91.
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE IS NEAR 17.1N 115.3W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. A
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF T.S. ISELLE ARE AFFECTING THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, PARTICULARLY CLARION ISLAND. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S
WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14.5N. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITH
THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ISELLE WILL MOVE TO 18.1N 116.4W MON MORNING,
19.4N 117.8W MON EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 20.4N
119.6W TUE MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.0N 121.4W
TUE EVENING, 21.5N 123.1W WED MORNING, AND 21.9N 125.1W WED
EVENING. ISELLE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
22.8N 128.8W LATE THU. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST BETWEEN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ISELLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. STRONGER WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONE BETWEEN
CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF ISELLE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
STORM CONDITIONS IN THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TONIGHT, AND STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND THE FORECAST
ZONE BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS ON MON. FRESH
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC REGION MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS
OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LEADING TO FRESH NE TO
E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION
EACH EVENING AND NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
EXTENDING WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS
OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
T.S. ISELLE AND INVEST AREA EP91.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB LOCATED N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND
OUTSIDE OF ISELLE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED N OF 15N AND W OF 120W. FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE SEEN
FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 125W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
LATER THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM WELL
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
RAMOS
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