834
WTPZ45 KNHC 242035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102026
200 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE (INVEST EP91) HAS HAD A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION SINCE LAST NIGHT, CONFIRMED BY
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER,
AND AT 18Z, TAFB PROVIDED A CLASSIFICATION OF T2.0/30 KT.
FURTHERMORE, A RECENT GPMI OVERPASS HIGHLIGHTS THE CURVED BANDING
STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTION. THUS, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS
FORMED.
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH A BEND TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOME
ACCELERATION IN 12-24 H AS THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE
DRAWS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR
THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA), THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEAN (GDMI) AND THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS (TVCN). THE FORECAST IS ALSO
NEAR THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS OVER
WARM WATER AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE CYCLONE ATTAINING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NEXT 12 H, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. EVERY MODEL
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY HOUR 36, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL ALSO SHOW DISSIPATION BY THAT TIME. ISELLE SHOULD OPEN UP
INTO A TROUGH BY HOUR 36 AS NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO ISELLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 13.5N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.9N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.1N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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