479
WTPZ44 KNHC 250237
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092026
800 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS THAT THE
MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD BE STARTING TO IMPACT
ISELLE, AS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS BEING PUSHED AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A TRAINING CURVED BAND THAT EXTENDS
PRETTY FAR SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB IS T3.5/55 KT, AND THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 50 TO 67 KT. BASED ON THE GIVEN DATA,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
NORTHWESTWARD, OR 315/10 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ISELLE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, CAUSING ISELLE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON
TUESDAY, AND THAT MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS
(HCCA) AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI).
THE STORM IS STILL OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT,
BUT WITH MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THERE IS
LIKELY A LIMIT TO HOW MUCH STRENGTH ISELLE COULD GAIN. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT ISELLE COULD GET TO HURRICANE INTENSITY, HOWEVER, THE
TIME TO DO SO IS LIMITED. AFTER THE NEXT 12 H, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS THE WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND
COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
CYCLONE'S INTENSITY. THE SIMULATED ECMWF AND GFS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT ISELLE COULD BECOME A A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN COULD BE DISSIPATE AROUND DAY 4. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 20.1N 118.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 20.7N 119.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 22.6N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 23.2N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 23.6N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI
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