768
WTPZ45 KNHC 250851
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102026
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR,
ENHANCED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE TO THE
NORTHEAST, IS DISPLACING THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED
WINDS OF 35-40 KT WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF
THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS
3.0/45 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 28-39 KT. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE ASCAT WIND DATA,
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIO, WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT,
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 H OR SO.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE STORM, JULIO IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF ISELLE
LATER TONIGHT AND ULTIMATELY BE ABSORBED BY ISELLE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 15.7N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.4N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS
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