534
WTPZ45 KNHC 251446
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102026
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF JULIO IS BECOMING EXPOSED
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER THAN BEFORE, SO THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT, WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A
RECENT OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. JULIO SHOULDN'T LAST LONG SINCE
SHEAR IS GREATLY INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE GETS CLOSER TO THE
MUCH-LARGER TROPICAL STORM ISELLE. IT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE
MODELS TO BREAK APART LATER TODAY AS JULIO BECOMES A SMALL TROUGH A
LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND ISELLE'S EASTWARD SIDE. LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE JULIO DISSIPATES TONIGHT, AND IT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED JULIO
DISSIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. THE 12-H FORECAST BELOW IS MOSTLY
GIVEN AS A PLACEHOLDER TO SHOW THE WIND FIELD AS SEPARATE FROM
ISELLE UNTIL THEY COMBINE TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 18.0N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 20.8N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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