126
WTPZ44 KNHC 261434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092026
800 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2026
WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO TAKE A TOLL ON ISELLE THIS
MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED, WITH WHAT LITTLE
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED OVER 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED WINDS WERE STILL AROUND 40 TO
45 KT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT DEGRADATION IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
AND DECREASING SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. INCREASING
WIND SHEAR, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, AND IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION BY TONIGHT. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THESE TRENDS AND INDICATES ISELLE WILL BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. THE REMNANT LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 3. THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 22.2N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 22.5N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 27/1200Z 23.2N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 23.9N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z 24.5N 130.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 25.0N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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