605
WTPZ44 KNHC 262035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092026
200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2026
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISELLE, AND ITS
TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIMITED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
FULLY EXPOSED AS THE SYSTEM DEALS WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE WIND
SHEAR. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS, WHICH SHOWED A PEAK WIND OF 34
KT, WAS HELPFUL IN ADJUSTING THE WIND RADII AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ALSO CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND
THE DETERIORATING SATELLITE APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT.
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. INCREASING
WIND SHEAR, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS
THESE TRENDS AND INDICATES ISELLE WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE TONIGHT. THE POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 22.7N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 23.2N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 27/1800Z 23.9N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 24.6N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z 25.3N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page