086
WTNT44 KNHC 272040
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042026
500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2026
DOLLY HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE DAY, THOUGH A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS
RECENTLY GONE UP IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS RATHER DRY, WITH MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION EXPOSED. SATELLITE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST
LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT
ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES AT 275/21 KT. DOLLY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
UNDER A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THERE AREN'T MANY GUIDANCE CHANGES TO REPORT AS THE MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A PATH TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST,
REMAINING ON THE FASTER AND SOUTHWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND DOLLY WILL LIKELY BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE
TO A CENTRAL ATLANTIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, FAST FORWARD MOTION AND
DRY AIR ALOFT. UNTIL THEN, SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE, CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ALL SHOW DOLLY DEGENERATING INTO A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ON
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BEFORE IT REACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, AND OUR
FORECAST SHOWS THIS DECAY BY THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION WAS MOVED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY, OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. POST-TROPICAL
POSITIONS ARE PROVIDED AT 48-60H GIVEN THE RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLLY OR ITS REMNANTS COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND HISPANIOLA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 13.7N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 14.1N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 14.7N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 15.6N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 16.5N 57.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/0600Z 17.3N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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