212
WTPZ42 KNHC 272046
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
1100 AM HST THU AUG 27 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND WELL
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED WELL-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BANDS. RECENTLY RECEIVED ASCAT DATA SHOWED A CLOSED
CIRCULATION WHICH, WHILE ELONGATED NE-SW, WAS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR
35 KT ABOUT 50 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS,
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM LOWELL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 065/4 KT. DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
HAS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED BY 120 H, WHICH SEEMS TO BE
DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON THE STEERING FLOW BY THE LARGER TROPICAL
STORM KARINA TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SPLITS THE SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS.
LOWELL WILL BE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING, AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS
STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOWELL WILL
STRENGTHEN MORE AND FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 11.3N 133.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 11.6N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 12.1N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 12.9N 134.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 13.0N 136.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 13.2N 138.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 13.4N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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