335
WTPZ42 KNHC 280248
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
500 PM HST THU AUG 27 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS
BEEN PERSISTING WITH LOWELL, WITH A BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND
OVER THE CENTER, AND A CURVED BAND NOTED AS WELL. A 27/2204Z AMSR-2
PASS ALSO SHOWS THE SAME CURVED BANDING PATTERN. EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED,
WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND (RMW) OF ABOUT 50 N MI. THE LATEST
TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION IS T2.5/35 KT AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 30-42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, BUT GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE BANDING AND
MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION, THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE SLIGHTLY
CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 70
DEGREES AT 4 KT. A SLOW COUNTERCLOCKWISE TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 H AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH. A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A TON OF SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED
FROM 72 TO 120 H, WHICH COULD BE RELATED TO KARINA'S LOCATION AND
SIZE, RELATIVE TO LOWELL'S. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD
THE WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS, BUT NOT NEARLY
AS FAST AS THE HCCA AND GDMI.
LOWELL WILL BE OVER RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR. DESPITE
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IT IS A BIT PERPLEXING THAT THE MODELS
ARE SO SLOW TO STRENGTHEN LOWELL TO A HURRICANE. PERHAPS THE SLOW
STRENGTHENING AT FIRST COULD BE DUE TO THE LARGE RMW OBSERVED ON
THE PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. IF
THE CYCLONE IS ABLE TO GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE AND GET NORTH OF 13N,
IT SHOULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN A FEW DAYS.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IN THE FIRST 4 DAYS, BUT A HIGHER INTENSITY IS SHOWN AT DAY 5. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, BUT
NOT AS HIGH AS THE HMON AND HCCA, WHICH BRING LOWELL TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOWELL COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 11.4N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 11.8N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 12.3N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 12.5N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 12.7N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 12.9N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 13.2N 139.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 13.5N 142.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 13.9N 146.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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