823
WTPZ42 KNHC 280835
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
1100 PM HST THU AUG 27 2026
LOWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION, AND BANDING FEATURES ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WEST OF THE CENTER. THE
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 35 TO 45
KT, AND BASED ON THOSE VALUES, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UP
TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING
SOME NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BASED ON ITS CONVECTIVE
PATTERN.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 65
DEGREES AT 5 KT, AND THAT GENERAL SLOW MOTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER, A TURN TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION, THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF THE TURN AND FORWARD SPEED OF
THE STORM AFTER IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, BUT IS NOT AS FAST
AS THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND HCCA SOLUTIONS, WHICH HAVE HAD A SLIGHT
FAST BIAS ON STORMS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC SO FAR THIS
SEASON.
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR. HOWEVER, STRENGTHENING COULD BE SLOW IN THE SHORT TERM
GIVEN ITS ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. MOST OF THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS
SHOW AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT LOWELL WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND LIES NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AT THE LATTER FORECAST TIMES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 11.7N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 12.1N 132.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 12.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 12.5N 134.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 12.7N 136.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 12.9N 138.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 13.1N 139.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 13.5N 143.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 13.9N 146.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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