781
WTPZ42 KNHC 281440
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
500 AM HST FRI AUG 28 2026
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT
LOWELL, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CURRENTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 33 TO 40 KT,
AND THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB IS
T2.5/35 KT WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) OF 3.0/45 KT. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SLOW
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS THIS
RIDGE STRENGTHENS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE WESTWARD.
BEYOND 48 TO 72 HOURS, CONSIDERABLE ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
REMAINS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TIED TO THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF MULTIPLE SYSTEMS AND DISTURBANCES IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON THE
STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FASTER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, GENERALLY BLENDING THE FASTER HCCA
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TVCN CONSENSUS AIDS. THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND MODEL
IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER AS NOTED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THIS MODEL HAS EXHIBITED A FAST BIAS IN THE
PACIFIC BASIN THIS SEASON.
ALTHOUGH LOWELL IS DEALING WITH SOME MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR BECOME EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR AND ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. PARTICULARLY BEYOND 60 HOURS, THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY STRENGTHENING, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THIS WEEKEND. THE UPDATED NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, LYING NEAR
THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE SHORT TERM AND CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE BEYOND 72 HOURS. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT SOME OF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS, AND HCCA SUGGEST A
FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 12.5N 132.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.6N 133.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 12.8N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.0N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.2N 137.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 13.5N 139.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 13.7N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 14.2N 144.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 14.6N 147.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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