347
WTPZ42 KNHC 290241
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
500 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2026
LOWELL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS, AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUPPORT HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD, WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF ABOUT 275/5 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY THEREAFTER DUE IN PART
TO THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON THE STEERING FLOW FROM TS KARINA TO
ITS NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE,
PARTICULARLY IN FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA)
AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN GENERALLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD ALSO INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY DAY 5. GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES, THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND HCCA.
THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING LOWELL IS
FORECAST TO HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN STEADILY DECREASE BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT
SHEARED STRUCTURE AND NEARBY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
TEMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THEREAFTER, AND A
FASTER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO LOWELL'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH KARINA. A FASTER
WESTWARD TRACK WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONES SUFFICIENTLY SEPARATED
AND ALLOW LOWELL TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING, WHILE A SLOWER SOLUTION
COULD EXPOSE LOWELL TO STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM
KARINA. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWELL BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT
60 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 12.5N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 12.6N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 12.7N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 13.2N 142.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 13.4N 144.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 13.7N 146.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 14.2N 150.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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