403
WTPZ42 KNHC 290851
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2026
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWELL'S ORGANIZATION OR INTENSITY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND WEST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WHILE AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOWED SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS, A BLEND OF THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD, WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF ABOUT 280/7 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LOWELL TO CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY THEREAFTER DUE IN PART
TO THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA TO THE NORTHEAST
ON LOWELL'S STEERING FLOW. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY IN FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN GENERALLY FASTER
THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD ALSO INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY DAY 5.
GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE LATEST HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING LOWELL IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN STEADILY DECREASE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT
SHEARED STRUCTURE AND NEARBY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
TEMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THEREAFTER, AND A
FASTER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
LOWELL'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH KARINA. A FASTER WESTWARD TRACK
WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONES SUFFICIENTLY SEPARATED AND ALLOW
LOWELL TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING, WHILE A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD
EXPOSE LOWELL TO STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM KARINA.
THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 12.6N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.8N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.0N 141.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 13.0N 143.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 13.1N 145.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 13.3N 146.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 13.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 13.9N 151.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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