330
WTPZ42 KNHC 291438
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
500 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
LOWELL IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY, AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE
OVERCAST. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER IS STILL DISPLACED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO
ONGOING EASTERLY SHEAR. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 35-40 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
40 KT.
LOWELL CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/7 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LOWELL TO CONTINUE WESTWARD
WITH SOME A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT, THE GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE
DIVERGENT IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS
OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA ON LOWELL'S STEERING FLOW. BY 120 H, THE
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION,
THE GFS, UKMET, AND THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST, AND THE CANADIAN MODEL TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND THE GFS
CLUSTER OF MODELS, AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 18-24 H
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE SHEAR, ALONG WITH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY
AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, SHOULD
RESULT IN SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 H. AFTER THAT CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER
RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOWELL'S POTENTIAL
INTERACTION WITH KARINA. AS NOTED BEFORE, A FASTER WESTWARD TRACK
WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONES SUFFICIENTLY SEPARATED AND ALLOW
LOWELL TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING, WHILE A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD
EXPOSE LOWELL TO STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM KARINA.
THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND IT LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THAT HAS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 12.8N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 12.8N 137.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 12.8N 139.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 12.9N 143.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 13.0N 145.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 13.1N 146.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 13.4N 149.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 13.8N 151.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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