126
WTPZ42 KNHC 292033
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
LOWELL REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE AT THIS TIME, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. SINCE THE
ORGANIZATION AND THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT.
FOR THE PAST 12 H OR SO LOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR 285/11 KT. A WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME SOON AND CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS THE
MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER THAT TIME, THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS
INTO THREE CAMPS, LIKELY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL
STORM KARINA ON LOWELL'S STEERING FLOW. ONE CAMP, WHICH INCLUDES
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS,
THE UKMET, AND THE ECMWF - WHICH HAS FLIP-FLOPPED INTO THIS CAMP -
CALLS FOR LOWELL TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD. A SECOND CAMP,
WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS,
FORECAST A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. THE THIRD
CAMP, WHICH INCLUDES THE CANADIAN, CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE NAVGEM, HAVE LOWELL SLOWING ITS WESTWARD
MOTION, WITH THE NAVGEM TURNING IT BACK TO THE EAST. NEEDLESS TO
SAY THAT WITH THIS KIND OF SPREAD THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST
AND A LITTLE FASTER. THAT BEING SAID, THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE CURRENT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD JOG.
THE ONGOING SHEAR HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN FORECAST
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT IT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H, WITH LOWELL
STRENGTHENING AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY ALIGNED. AFTER 24 H, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOWELL'S POTENTIAL
INTERACTION WITH KARINA. THE FORECAST INTENSITY, WHICH HAS MINOR
TWEAKS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, CALLS FOR LOWELL AND KARINA TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH APART FOR LOWELL TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OR KEEP
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION COULD EXPOSE LOWELL
TO STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM KARINA AND CAUSE A
WEAKER STORM. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN LIES IN THE MIDDLE
OF A GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 13.2N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.2N 138.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.1N 140.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.1N 142.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 13.2N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 13.3N 146.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 13.4N 147.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 13.8N 150.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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