015
WTPZ42 KNHC 300232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
500 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
LOWELL'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
DISPLACE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON A BLEND OF AN EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASS, THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
LOWELL IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 270/8 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER, CONSIDERABLE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
DEVELOPS IN THE GUIDANCE, LIKELY DUE IN PART TO THE POTENTIAL
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA ON LOWELL'S STEERING FLOW. THE
LATEST HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION, WHILE THE GFS,
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS, AND SIMPLE CONSENSUS (TVCN) SUPPORT A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THESE
SOLUTIONS, THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, HCCA, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING LOWELL IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM, WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE RATE
OF STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE LOWELL REMAINS OVER WARM
WATERS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THEREAFTER, WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A FASTER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN
LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO LOWELL'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
KARINA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CYCLONES SUFFICIENTLY
SEPARATED FOR LOWELL TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING, WHILE A SLOWER AND
MORE NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTION COULD EXPOSE LOWELL TO STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM KARINA AND RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE.
THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 13.2N 138.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.1N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 13.0N 142.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 13.1N 145.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 13.2N 147.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 13.4N 149.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 13.6N 152.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 14.3N 154.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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