309
WTPZ42 KNHC 300836
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
LOWELL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING. MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, A BLEND OF A
SCATTEROMETER PASS THIS EVENING, THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB
SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
LOWELL IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 270/9 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER, CONSIDERABLE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD PERSISTS, LIKELY DUE IN PART TO THE POTENTIAL
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE KARINA TO THE NORTHEAST ON LOWELL'S STEERING
FLOW. THE LATEST HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES AND REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE GFS, REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS, AND SIMPLE CONSENSUS (TVCN) CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GRADUAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS, THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, HCCA, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT LOWELL AND
SHOULD TEMPER THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 36 H, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 H AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COULD LIMIT THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION, ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING, WITH LOWELL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT
48 H, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
LOWELL'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH KARINA. A SLOWER AND MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND SOME OF THE REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS, WOULD BRING LOWELL CLOSER TO KARINA AND COULD
EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
KARINA'S OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A WEAKER CYCLONE. CONVERSELY, A
FARTHER-SOUTH TRACK WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE TWO CYCLONES SUFFICIENTLY
SEPARATED AND ALLOW LOWELL TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OR CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
(IVCN).
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, AND THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1500 UTC/500 AM HST. USERS WILL NOT NEED
TO CHANGE WHERE THEY OBTAIN INFORMATION ON LOWELL, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 13.2N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 13.0N 143.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 13.1N 145.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.3N 147.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 13.4N 149.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 13.5N 150.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 14.0N 154.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 14.9N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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