878
WTNT35 KNHC 311523
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 91.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST FROM PORT BOLIVAR, TEXAS, TO THE VERMILION/CAMERON PARISH
LINE IN LOUISIANA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT BOLIVAR TO THE VERMILION/CAMERON PARISH LINE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB (29.92 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY, MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
HIGH ISLAND, TX TO VERMILION/IBERIA PARISH LINE, LA...1-3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
RAINFALL: PTC FIVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 9 INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST INLAND THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PTC
FIVE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?ERO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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