250
WTNT45 KNHC 312054
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026
400 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED, AND IT WAS SUFFICIENT TO DESIGNATE IT AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOR THE 18 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THE SYSTEM, WITH A PROMINENT CURVED BAND NOW EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
38 KT EARLIER TODAY, AND TAFB PROVIDED A T2.0/30 KT DVORAK ESTIMATE
AT 18 UTC. THESE DATA SUPPORT A 30-KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION LIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PRIOR
ESTIMATES BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS STEERING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST (300/5 KT), AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH THE UPDATED 24-H
FORECAST POINT JUST OFFSHORE. THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE, AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION MAINLY DUE TO THE
REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FAIRLY COMPACT AND HAS A SMALL RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WIND. ALTHOUGH IT ONLY HAS ABOUT A DAY OVER THE VERY WARM
GULF WATERS, STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN A GENERALLY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SINCE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO QUICKER INTENSITY CHANGES, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN RAISED AND NOW LIES ABOVE ALMOST ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING HCCA AND IVCN. THE LEGACY HURRICANE REGIONAL
MODELS (HWRF/HMON) SHOW EVEN MORE STRENGTHENING THAN IS FORECAST
HERE. WHILE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO,
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS ON
TUESDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT BOLIVAR,
TEXAS, TO THE VERMILION/IBERIA PARISH LINE, LOUISIANA.
2. HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THIS REGION, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RIVER FLOODING MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
3. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HIGH ISLAND, TEXAS, TO
THE VERMILION/CAMERON PARISH LINE, LOUISIANA. PEAK VALUES OF UP TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 28.2N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 28.8N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 29.6N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 30.6N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1800Z 31.6N 96.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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