351
WTNT45 KNHC 010253
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED AN INCREASE IN BANDING NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INCREASED TO AROUND 35-40 KT, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
WAS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 35 KT ON THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY. SINCE THAT TIME, THERE HAS BEEN A PAUSE IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT CURVED BANDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE SYSTEM
THIS EVENING REPORTED EARLIER THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
AROUND 1004 MB, WHICH IS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN FROM THIS
AFTERNOON'S MISSION, THOUGH THE LAST FIX WAS UP A MILLIBAR OR TWO.
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE RESPONDED TO THE
PRESSURE DROP YET, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
EDOUARD WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF WITHIN A LOW SHEAR AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, NEARLY ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ON ITS
APPROACH TO THE COAST, WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH OF THE STRENGTHENING
OCCURING IN THE FINAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM
IS SMALL, A PERIOD OF QUICK ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING SEEMS
LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD RESULT
IN EDOUARD NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE, A HURRICANE WATCH AND STORM SURGE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
WITH THIS ADVISORY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER-END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NOTE THAT SINCE THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT LANDFALL (BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST
POINTS), IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO EXPLICITLY REFLECT EDOUARD'S PEAK
INTENSITY IN THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW.
EDOUARD IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300/6 KT. A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO
STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND INLAND OVER EASTERN
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND IT COULD APPROACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
CAMERON.
2. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HIGH ISLAND, TEXAS TO
THE VERMILION/CAMERON PARISH LINE, LOUISIANA WHERE PEAK VALUES OF
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
3. HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD TRACKS INLAND. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RIVER FLOODING
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 28.6N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 29.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 30.1N 94.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/1200Z 31.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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