357
WTNT45 KNHC 010848
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2026
IT HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK THE CENTER OF EDOUARD THIS MORNING,
SHOWING UP AS A WELL-DEFINED CORE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION ON SHORTWAVE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM LAKE CHARLES,
LOUISIANA (KLCH). WHILE THE FINAL FIXES FROM THE PRIOR AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION DID NOT SHOW AN ADDITIONAL PRESSURE
DROP, THEIR REMARKS DID NOTE A NASCENT LOW-LEVEL EYEWALL WAS TRYING
TO FORM, WHICH CAN ALSO BE SEEN FROM LAND-BASED RADAR. THIS
STRUCTURE COULD PROVE IMPORTANT FOR EDOUARD'S NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION PROSPECTS AS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINS TO REFORM CLOSE
TO THE STORM CENTER. FOR NOW, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT
THIS ADVISORY, IN AGREEMENT WITH RADIAL VELOCITY DATA FROM KLCH AND
THE 06 UTC TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EDOUARD AGAIN
THIS MORNING.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST TODAY IS PROBLEMATIC. EDOUARD HAS MANAGED TO
DEVELOP A SMALL CORE THAT COULD BE PRONE TO RAPID CHANGES IN
INTENSITY. IN ADDITION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION WHILE EDOUARD REMAINS OVER WATER, WITH 31 C
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DIAGNOSED AT
4 KT BY UW-CIMSS. THE RAW OUTPUT FROM THE HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODELS
RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS BY SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION
TODAY, WITH BOTH HMON AND HAFS-A MAKING EDOUARD A HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. HAFS-B AND HWRF SHOW A SOMEWHAT MORE TEMPERED RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN EDOUARD'S CURRENT STRUCTURE, A RAPID
INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL IS STILL ANTICIPATED, AND THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS A 55 KT INTENSITY NEAR LANDFALL, WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE RAW MODEL HAFS-B OUTPUT AT THAT TIME. OF NOTE, THIS IS
WELL ABOVE THE INTERPOLATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH CAN STRUGGLE
TO DEPICT RAPID SHORT-TERM INTENSITY CHANGES IN THESE CASES CLOSE
TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, EDOUARD SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN, LIKELY
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 36 H AND DISSIPATING BY 48 H.
EDOUARD CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 300/7 KT. A
PROMINENT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THEN TURNING MORE NORTHWEST AFTER 24 H AS THE STORM
ROUNDS THE RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, EDOUARD SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER
TODAY NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER, AND THEN PUSH INLAND OVER
EASTERN TEXAS BY TONIGHT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THOUGH WITH JUST A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT, AND THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A TOUCH WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
CLOSEST TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA).
KEY MESSAGES:
1. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND IT COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF
COAST WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
CAMERON.
2. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM HIGH ISLAND, TEXAS TO
THE VERMILION/CAMERON PARISH LINE, LOUISIANA WHERE PEAK VALUES OF
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
3. HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD TRACKS INLAND. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RIVER FLOODING
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 29.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 29.7N 93.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H 02/0600Z 30.6N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/1800Z 31.7N 95.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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