666
AXPZ20 KNHC 111546
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 124.7W AT 11/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 20 FT WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 123W AND 126W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FROM 11N
TO 14N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
121W AND 123W. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST, AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NORBERT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FOURTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 112W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 12N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 09N95W TO 11N111W,
THEN CONTINUES SW OF NORBERT FROM 11N126W TO 12N140W. IN
ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NORBERT AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 02N TO 08.5N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND
FROM 00N TO 11N W OF 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT LOCATED WELL SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE OF
1019 MB LOCATED 31N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AS
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 16.7N
126.3W THIS EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.0N 128.4W
SAT MORNING, 17.5N 130.4W SAT EVENING, 18.0N 132.3W SUN MORNING,
18.2N 134.3W SUN EVENING, AND 18.4N 136.4W MON MORNING. NORBERT
WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM W OF AREA NEAR 18.2N 140.7W
EARLY TUE. AS NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, A STRONGER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NW TO N WINDS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MEANDERING TROUGH THAT IS IN
PLACE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE AGAIN IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA FORCES FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION,
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 89W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OFF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT LOCATED WELL SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 04N AND WEST OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO ABOUT 120W. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED 31N123W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF
110W SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 16.7N 126.3W
THIS EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.0N 128.4W SAT
MORNING, 17.5N 130.4W SAT EVENING, 18.0N 132.3W SUN MORNING,
18.2N 134.3W SUN EVENING, AND 18.4N 136.4W MON MORNING. NORBERT
WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM W OF AREA NEAR 18.2N 140.7W EARLY
TUE. ELSEWHERE, A CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 04N. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN THE NE WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
GR
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