078
AXPZ20 KNHC 112118
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 125.7W AT 11/2100
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 20 FT WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
AND NORBERT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FOURTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP97): SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS LIKELY, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
THROUGH 7 DAYS.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 113W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW (EP97) IS ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N100W TO 11N110W,
THEN CONTINUES SW OF NORBERT FROM 11N126W TO 12N140W. IN ADDITION
TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NORBERT AND INVEST EP97,
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM
04N TO 08N E OF 92W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 115W AND 123W, AND FROM 00N TO 11N W OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND INVEST EP97.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS PROVIDE OBSERVATION OF MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND
TO ABOUT 14N. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1022 MB LOCATED 31N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRODUCING LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AS
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 16.9N
127.2W SAT MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.3N 129.1W
SAT AFTERNOON, 17.7N 131.0W SUN MORNING, 18.1N 132.9W SUN
AFTERNOON, 18.3N 134.8W MON MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 18.4N 136.8W MON AFTERNOON. NORBERT WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 18.2N 141.2W TUE AFTERNOON.
AS T.S. NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, A STRONGER RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MEANDERING TROUGH
THAT IS IN PLACE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
GAP WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 89W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OFF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND INVEST EP97.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 04N AND WEST OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO ABOUT 130W. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF AREA DOMINATES THE N WATERS, MAINLY N OF 20N AND W
OF 110W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND AWAY FROM
NORBERT, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 21N AND E OF 118W TO
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 16.9N 127.2W
SAT MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.3N 129.1W SAT
AFTERNOON, 17.7N 131.0W SUN MORNING, 18.1N 132.9W SUN AFTERNOON,
18.3N 134.8W MON MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
18.4N 136.8W MON AFTERNOON. NORBERT WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 18.2N 141.2W TUE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, A CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING
SEAS TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 04N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE NE WATERS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GR
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