408
AXPZ20 KNHC 120917
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 127.4W AT 12/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 24 FT WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT OF
THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. NORBERT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND NORBERT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH HURRICANE
INTENSITY BY 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FOURTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND (INVEST EP97): SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, WINDS TO
MINIMAL GALE-FORCE ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND THROUGH MON.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W NORTH OF 08N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W FROM 07N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW (EP97) IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 14N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 16N115W TO
15N120W, AND FROM 13N125W TO 09N135W TO 14N140W. IN ADDITION TO
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NORBERT AND INVEST EP97,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN
90W AND 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND INVEST EP97.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS NEAR 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP97, SOUTH OF CLARION
ISLAND NEAR 15N114W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. THE SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN. FARTHER
NORTH, 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AS NOTED IN THE SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP97, LOCATED SOUTH OF
CLARION ISLAND REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY FORM OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TO ABOUT 210 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CLARION BY LATE SUN. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT,
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE SE WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND THROUGH MON.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS SUN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS WILL
PULSE AGAIN IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 89W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OFF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND INVEST EP97.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 04N AND WEST OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO ABOUT 130W. 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
32N132W DOMINATES WATERS NORTH OF 20N. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND AWAY FROM NORBERT, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 115W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS NEAR 17.1N 127.4W AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB.
NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 17.4N 128.8W THIS AFTERNOON, 17.8N 130.6W
SUN MORNING, 18.1N 132.6W SUN AFTERNOON, 18.4N 134.7W MON
MORNING, 18.4N 137.0W MON AFTERNOON, AND 18.3N 139.4W TUE
MORNING. NORBERT WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST OF 140W EARLY WED. ELSEWHERE, A CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT
SOUTH OF 04N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE NE WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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