199
AXPZ20 KNHC 130339
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 130.5W AT 13/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 22 FT WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. NORBERT WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
NORBERT SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A POST- TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FOURTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND (INVEST EP97): SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITH THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, WINDS STRONG WINDS WITH ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND
THROUGH MON.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W NORTH OF 03N EXTENDING INTO
OAXACA, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N100W TO 09N110W,
AND FROM 12N130W TO BEYOND 13N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NORBERT AND INVEST EP97, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 82W AND
90W, FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, AND FROM 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND INVEST EP97.
FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS TO SIX FEET ARE LIKELY ONGOING OFF CABO
CORRIENTES CURRENTLY. ELSEWHERE, AND ASIDE FROM THE WINDS AND
SEAS ALREADY DESCRIBED NEAR CLARION ISLAND, GENTLE BREEZES AND
2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF INVEST EP97, A RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN
IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUILDING
SEAS TO 8 OR 9 FT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND INVEST EP97.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 04N AND WEST OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO ABOUT 135W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF AREA NEAR 32N131W DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND AWAY FROM NORBERT, MAINLY
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 115W TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 18.3N 132.0W SUN MORNING, 18.7N 134.2W SUN
EVENING, 19.1N 136.6W MON MORNING, 19.3N 139.4W MON EVENING, THEN
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OF 140W, BEFORE DISSIPATING
LATE WED. ELSEWHERE, A CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 04N. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NE WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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