828
AXPZ20 KNHC 130900
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 131.7W AT 13/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 19 FT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTEND OUT 120 NM IN
THE NORTHERN AND 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE
CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. NORBERT WILL CONTINUE
ON A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THEN
GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. NORBERT SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A
POST- TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NORBERT NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND (INVEST EP97): SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 120
NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BASIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
WITH THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT,
WINDS STRONG WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND INTO MON.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W NORTH OF 03N EXTENDING INTO
OAXACA, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N110W, AND FROM
14N130W TO BEYOND 11N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NORBERT AND INVEST EP97, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 11N EAST OF 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND INVEST EP97.
FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS TO SIX FEET ARE LIKELY ONGOING OFF CABO
CORRIENTES. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH
N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, AND ASIDE
FROM THE WINDS AND SEAS ALREADY DESCRIBED NEAR CLARION ISLAND,
GENTLE BREEZES AND 2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF INVEST EP97, A RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG TO NEAR- GALE N TO
NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
MEANWHILE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND INVEST EP97.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 05N AND WEST OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO ABOUT 130W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NORTH OF AREA NEAR 33N132W DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND AWAY FROM NORBERT AND
INVEST EP97, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 18.3N 133.5W THIS AFTERNOON, 18.8N 135.8W
MON MORNING, 19.1N 138.5W MON AFTERNOON, THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES WEST OF 140W, BEFORE DISSIPATING WED MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, A CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 05N. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN THE NE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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